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Noreena Hertz interview

With the recent triggering of Article 50, what do you think the economic future is for Britain over the next two years and into the future?

25th June 2017 - 387 days ago

Assuming that Brexit will go ahead the consensus amongst economists is that it's likely to come at a cost. How big a cost remains a question given how radically uncertain the environment is. Key factors that will affect this include the outcome of the UK General Election, the outcome of the French and German elections, what happens to the pound, what kind of post Brexit trade deals the UK manages to strike, how the financial services sector is affected and the ultimate position of the UK government on migration. All of these are impossible right now to predict with certainty.

Noreena Hertz
Noreena Hertz

Noreena Hertz

Decision-Making Guru & Renowned Economist

Take the pound. Whilst it fell markedly after the Referendum vote it now looks likely to strengthen over coming weeks given that the calling of a General Election is viewed positively by currency traders who see it as massively increasing the odds of a "softer" Brexit. But will it continue to rise? Not necessarily. It's important to remember that the kind of Brexit the UK ends up with is not Theresa May's gift. So any rumbling, grumbling or hardball posturing from Brussels, EU ministers, or negotiators over coming weeks and months is still likely to affect the pound. Rumblings and grumblings within the Conservative party will also have an impact. Then of course there's the Euro and Dollar - neither of which have certain trajectories right now - each of which affect the value of sterling.

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